Sunday 1 January 2023

Happy 2023 - Thoughts on 100 years of Computing Technologies Past 50 and Next 50

 

As we say goodbye to 2022 and walk into 2023, some thoughts and points to ponder!

World has benefited significantly from computers. We live longer and our lives are way better. Along the way lots of people have become richer courtesy computing technologies. Whether we realize it or not, computers have also proliferated democracy. Anyone anywhere can get a bright idea, build a winning product and become world famous and rich. That’s all in the last 50-60 years. I feel the computing revolution has just begun. Can’t imagine what the next half century will bring. Semiconductor chips driven by smart software will enter our bodies for good and will improve our lives. Defective body parts may get permanent replacement, remediated at DNA level and much more. And all of this with the current computing model. I am sure even that will change, creating use cases that look science fiction today.

Computers essentially simulate the real world and make it operate real fast. Some call it the digital twin. For example, someone manually determining the savings of say 100 million people by subtracting individual expenses from the income of each person will take a few thousand hours; the same will be done by a computer in less than five seconds. And newer computers are smaller and cost less. That’s the reason, we carry a movie maker and a theater in our palms today. Now we are making computers learn just like humans do. Who knows in future computers may possess wisdom which is right now the domain of humans.

Many think, technologies of the last 50-60 years have been the most revolutionary. Hold your thoughts. Let’s go back to 1850 to 1910. Steam engines, electricity, telephone, and the ability to fly all happened in that period. In 1840, one had to use a horse carriage, ride a dirt road having no lights and could not communicate before arriving at the destination. All of that changed by 1905. One could just make a phone call, take a train, or fly. Technology breakthroughs are revolutionary.

There is also a downside to technology. I think the time has come to think about regulating technology without impacting innovation. Cybercrime, ill effects of digital media etc. are warning signs. We don’t want the benefits of technology to be negated.

While affluence is increasing so is greed. Money at any cost, even if it means unfair and foul ways. It is like a disease. It starts from dodging taxes, breaking laws all the way to defying democracy to get more power and retain it at any cost. Today’s wars and conflicts arise out of this attitude. World seems to be drifting away from civility and human values. While there will be winners, let’s not junk or look down on losers. “Winner Take All” is not all that a good Idea. Every living being has a right to a decent life, winner or loser! 

Happy 2023!

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