Sunday 7 June 2020

Playing to our strength - competing with China

With the announcement of “Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan” by Hon. PM, lot of debate has started in media and elsewhere. However, these debates, especially those on TV channels have missed key points. Issues that dominate the debates are manufacturing, curtailing of imports specially from China plus fear and awe of China. I want to bring in different ideas.

One does not win without a winning mindset. India needs to build on its strengths, including manufacturing by the way. Let’s see where we have built world-class industries and we are the leader – IT Services, Bollywood and higher education if we consider IITs and IIMs. Chinese have not made a dent in IT Services where India is the undisputed world leader with other countries such as Brazil, Hungary, Russia, Philippines and many others following India. Hollywood considers Bollywood a serious competitor.

Coming to manufacturing, it is not the end game. Companies like Reliance, L&T, Tata Motors, Rajesh Exports (Surprised with this name! Please check their annual turnover ) and many others have been recognized for engineering expertise and scale. Let’s focus on high end engineering and select manufacturing. Pick specific areas rather than getting hung up with what Chinese do. Let’s target at least 10 good companies to reach ~$50b to 100billion and another 20 to reach $25billion to $50billion in next 5 to 10 years. This alone will generate $1t to $2trillion topline. And a strong ecosystem of ancillary units. Many MSMEs will repivot to support these mega engineering companies. Trick is to identify these 20 and say another 50-75 companies for mega growth. I have not included oil and petroleum companies like IOC, ONGC, HPCL, BPCL etc. Let Chinese supply us cheap phones and other consumable items they are good at. In fact, an inexpensive phone will mean more affordability for a farmer and good for the country.

Secondly, Specific verticals namely, tourism, healthcare, Defence production, satellite communication, telecommunication, select agriculture produce and even areas like disaster management, where Indian can reach the top or at least in top two or three. How about higher education. India is known for its intellect. Why not grow education as a vertical. I am sure many will argue that a large part of our population is illiterate and needs education. But that’s like saying let’s build software for our own usage before exporting. IT industry would not have grown. There can be some juggling of basket of industries and verticals. Once earmarked, we need to get laser sharp focus on mega growth of these companies. Government cannot dampen the mood. It has to act like a high-octane catalyst.

Concluding, let’s consider Cricket. Over past 20 years, India decided to flex its muscle on the world scene. Legend (Tendulkar), world class talent (Dravid, VVS Laxman, Zaheer Khan, Harbhajan Singh and others.) and a confident leader (Saurav Ganguly) coupled with modern methods in coaching and facilities made India make tremendous progress and get to No 1. The system of IPL and leagues has not only given chance to a large number of players, there is continuous supply of talent and a business has been created. But the key was talent and the confidence. One can say Gavaskar and Kapil Dev reached world class level and 1983 world cup win sowed the seed. So, a few companies reaching world class can be the motivation pill for the whole industry and the country. 

“Atma Nirbharata” is not the myopia of restricting to manufacturing and scare of China but reaching the next level where we can afford to buy goods and services we don’t make. But we offer the world several quality goods and services.  

5 comments:

  1. Your point is valid but being in semiconductor industry for several years,I can say it will be very difficult to compete with China in building up our Semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem over time scale that is reasonable. We have missed many experts in our country had reminded govt several times in the past. I will be extremely happy even if we bring part of semiconductor manufacturing such as Assembly and Packaging.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Lets focus on core aspect of semiconductor - that is software that drives SoCs. Lets china be a fab (lowwr end). We can be designers and the IP that drives the chips. Anyway, Fabs dont create much jobs. Jobs are in design, software and downstream

    ReplyDelete
  3. Being competitive not only to China but to other countries india need to devise the fabric policy soon.fabless companies startups ip business have to gear .

    ReplyDelete
  4. Absolutely. We can belong to the league of Germany, Japan & US for manufacturing rather than China. Trouble for China is their brand is cheap mfg but they have size, scale and efficiency on their side.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I would agree with Education as a vertical. We should look at attracting even students from other countries to come and join our universities when our engineering seats are remaining vacant now-a-days. That would increase our education reach and we can create a brand for our education system as well, if done properly.

    Also, Tourism seems neglected area. If Thailand can generate massive revenue through high footfalls in Bangkok/Phuket and other parts of their nation, we can also generate good % of GDP from tourism. That will create better infrastructure as well where we are lagging behind most of the nations.

    It is not just Manufacturing, it is about looking for opportunities in all areas.

    ReplyDelete